Fed Decision in January?
Amount
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At its January 2027 meeting, the Federal Reserve will decide whether to lower, hold, or raise the upper bound of its target federal funds range. The outcomes capture the size and direction of that decision.
Traders can choose between a decrease of 50 bps or more, a 25 bps decrease, no change, a 25 bps increase, and an increase of 50 bps or more.
The market resolves from the FOMC statement released after the meeting. If the rate moves by an amount not listed, it is mapped to an outcome using the rounding method in the Resolution Rules below.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's January 2027 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for January 26-27, 2027 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their January meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.