Market overview
At its December 2026 meeting, the Federal Reserve will decide whether to lower, hold, or raise the upper bound of its target federal funds range. The outcomes capture the size and direction of that decision.
Traders can choose between a decrease of 50 bps or more, a 25 bps decrease, no change, a 25 bps increase, and an increase of 50 bps or more.
The market resolves from the FOMC statement released after the meeting. If the rate moves by an amount not listed, it is mapped to an outcome using the rounding method in the Resolution Rules below.