Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are August 31, July 31, September 30, June 30, October 31, and December 31.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Jerome Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Powell must step down”), statements of intent (e.g.“I am planning to fire Powell”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Jerome Powell resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Powell from his role as chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, which do not include removing Powell as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.