GDP growth in 2026
Amount
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The contract settles on the range containing the measured result for “GDP growth in 2026?”
The available value bands are <0.5%, 0.5–1.0%, 1.0–1.5%, 1.5–2.0%, 2.0–2.5%, and >2.5%.
The exact metric, reference period, source, rounding method, and treatment of range boundaries are documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.