Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by...?
Amount
Buy
Each outcome asks whether “Will the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are March 31, 2026, October 31, December 31, and December 31, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Senate passes a motion to invoke cloture and end debate on any part of the legislative process, with such a cloture motion receiving Yea votes from fewer than three-fifths of the Senators by October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
Confirmations are considered part of the Senate’s “advice and consent” function, not part of the Senate’s “legislative process,” and will therefore not count towards this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government.