How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?
Amount
Buy
The contract settles on the final count for “How many SpaceX Starship launches reach space in 2026?” over the stated measurement period.
The 8 listed count choices are <5, 5-6, 9-10, 7-8, >16, 11-12, 15-16, and 13-14.
The final count depends on the exact unit, qualifying criteria, observation window, and source documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.