Market overview
The outcomes break “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15?” into 7 separately evaluated possibilities.
The listed possibilities are November 15, 2026, Super Heavy booster explodes?, Successful splash down?, Chopsticks catch Starship?, October 31, 2026, Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?, and November 30, 2026.
Each listed possibility follows the qualifying conditions, evidence source, and timing documented in the Resolution Rules below.