PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4 by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “PHIVOLCS raises Mayon to Alert Level 4?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are November 15, 2026, November 7, 2026, and November 30, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) raises Mayon Volcano to Alert Level 4 or higher at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A raise directly to Alert Level 5 qualifies. A qualifying raise counts even if PHIVOLCS later lowers the alert level. Statements that the alert level may be raised, evacuation orders, and declarations by other agencies or local governments will not be considered for resolution.
Resolution turns on the time PHIVOLCS issues the bulletin or advisory raising the alert level, not the time of the underlying volcanic activity.
The resolution source for this market will be official PHIVOLCS Mayon Volcano bulletins and advisories (https://wovodat.phivolcs.dost.gov.ph/bulletin/list-of-bulletin). Please note that this market is about the alert level according to PHIVOLCS, not according to any other sources.