Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Will Jordan Bardella leave the National Rally?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are July 31, March 31, and December 31.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Jordan Bardella leaves the National Rally by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This includes leaving the National Rally, affiliating with any other political party, or renouncing National Rally and becoming an independent. An official announcement from Bardella stating that he is leaving National Rally will qualify, regardless of when the change takes effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be an official announcement from Bardella or National Rally. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.