Insurrection Act invoked by...?
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Each outcome asks whether “Insurrection Act invoked?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are September 30, December 31, January 31, July 31, June 30, March 31, and April 30.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.