Fetterman leaves the Democrats by...?
Amount
Buy
Each outcome asks whether “Fetterman leaves the Democrats?” is satisfied by a different deadline, allowing expectations to be compared across shorter and longer time windows.
The available deadlines are November 2, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
Each deadline uses the exact qualifying event, source, cutoff time, and time-zone rules documented in the Resolution Rules below.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if John Fetterman officially announces that he is leaving, or formally leaves, the Democratic Party by the specified date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For purposes of this market, "Before the Midterms" is defined to mean by November 2, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
Announcements from Fetterman that he will join the Republican Party, become an independent, join another political party, or otherwise cease to be a member of the Democratic Party will qualify. A consensus of credible reporting that Fetterman has formally left the Democratic Party will also suffice.
Statements criticizing the Democratic Party, voting with Republicans, endorsing Republican candidates, describing himself as bipartisan or independent-minded, or expressing disagreement with Democratic Party positions will not qualify unless accompanied by an official announcement that he is leaving the Democratic Party or a consensus of credible reporting that he has formally left the Democratic Party.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from John Fetterman; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.