What is my real all-in cost to trade this market?
The real cost of a prediction market trade is not just the fee line on the venue. It is the combined effect of entry fees, exit fees or settlement charges, transfer costs, and any fixed execution overhead needed to get capital in and out.
- Best for
- Entry and exit planning before order placement
- Primary output
- Net PnL after all modeled fees
- Use before
- Any trade with tight expected edge
Read the result well
- Combines platform, transfer, and flat execution costs
- Supports round-trip, settlement-win, and settlement-loss scenarios
- Shows fee load versus entry notional and breakeven exit price
Method and assumptions
What counts as trading cost in prediction markets
Traders frequently undercount costs because they think only about explicit trading fees. In practice, the money lost to friction can come from multiple layers: platform fee schedules, settlement charges, bank or chain transfer costs, and the operational cost of moving money between venues.
- Entry fees on the initial buy
- Exit fees when closing the position or collecting settlement proceeds
- Deposit, withdrawal, bridge, or network costs
- Any other flat expense required to complete the workflow
How to use the fee calculator correctly
Start by choosing the scenario that matches the real trade. If you expect to exit before resolution, use the round-trip mode because it models the cost stack on the way in and on the way out. If you plan to hold to settlement, use the settlement modes so the outcome reflects that path instead.
- Choose round-trip or settlement mode based on your actual intended exit path.
- Enter price and contracts for the specific order size you expect to execute.
- Add entry and exit fee rates from the venue or product you are trading.
- Include fixed cash costs such as withdrawals, gas, or bank movement.
Worked fee example
Assume you buy 500 contracts at $0.47, expect to exit at $0.58, pay 0.10% on entry and exit, and spend $5 to withdraw. On the surface, the move from $0.47 to $0.58 looks clean, but the fee calculator reveals how much of that gain survives once the full workflow is priced correctly.
- Higher turnover strategies need stricter fee discipline than hold-to-resolution trades.
- Flat fees matter more on smaller position sizes because they are spread over fewer contracts.
- The breakeven exit price tells you whether the planned trade has enough room to matter.
Common mistakes when modeling prediction market fees
One common mistake is using a preset and never checking whether the exact product or order type matches the preset assumptions. Another is treating transfers as irrelevant because they are not charged by the market itself, even though they still reduce realized profit.
- Ignoring fixed costs because they look small in isolation
- Using theoretical position size instead of executable order size
- Forgetting that both the open and close leg can have friction
- Comparing venues without normalizing their full cost path
Good default rule: If the trade only works under unrealistically low fees, it does not really work. Build your go or no-go rule on the conservative version of the cost stack.